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Prediction for CME (2023-12-14T17:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-14T17:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28157/-1
CME Note: Bright nearly full halo CME with the bulk portion to the west in STEREO A COR2 imagery. Current SOHO data gap. The source is a X2.8 class flare from AR13514 (N05W54) peaking at 2023-12-14T17:02Z. The source is visible across all SDO/AIA wavelengths with clear dimming signatures to the SE of the eruption in SDO/AIA 193/171/211. Corresponding brightening seen in SDO/AIA 304. An EUV wave is clearly seen in SDO/AIA 193, 211, and GOES SUVI 284 traveling to the SE towards disk center and along the western limb. The EUV wave appears to correspond with a large shock in the coronagraph imagery. Post-eruptive arcades are visible around 2023-12-14T19:00Z in SDO/AIA 171.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-17T07:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-16T20:48Z (-2.61h, +3.48h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/12/14 17:20Z
Plane of Sky 1: 23:00Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 03:40Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction
POS Difference: 4:40
POS Midpoint: 01:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:00

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.43
Travel Time: ~6.43 * 8:00 = 51:28

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-12-16T20:48Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5

Lead Time: 51.55 hour(s)
Difference: 10.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-12-15T03:59Z

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